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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Scottish Premiership · Matchweek 10

Falkirk

FAL

Kilmarnock

KIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Falkirk43%
Draw25%
Kilmarnock32%

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.42

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

63%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 1–08.1%
  • 1–27.5%
  • 0–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Kilmarnock get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

43%Possession46%
32%Territory39%
11%From set plays33%
0.11Chance quality0.10
6.7%Directness5.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Falkirk, 4 for Kilmarnock.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 23 of 36 matches, not the full season.