Eredivisie · Matchweek 27
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
NEC Nijmegen43%
Draw28%
Ajax29%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.16
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
NEC Nijmegen will have the ball; Ajax will not mind.
65%Possession52%
58%Territory39%
39%From set plays29%
0.09Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for NEC Nijmegen, 3 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.