Eredivisie · Matchweek 24
Willem II
WIL
FC Groningen
FCG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Willem II24%
Draw24%
FC Groningen52%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.84
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.9%
- 2–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession50%
33%Territory37%
11%From set plays17%
0.18Chance quality0.14
8.2%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Willem II, 3 for FC Groningen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.