Eredivisie · Matchweek 24
Ajax
AJA
Feyenoord
FEY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax30%
Draw27%
Feyenoord43%
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.50
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession55%
39%Territory44%
29%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.16
4.7%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ajax, 3 for Feyenoord. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.