Eredivisie · Matchweek 23
Ajax
AJA
Go Ahead Eagles
GOA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax53%
Draw25%
Go Ahead Eagles21%
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.02
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession52%
39%Territory34%
29%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.09
4.7%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ajax, 3 for Go Ahead Eagles. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.