Eredivisie · Matchweek 22
Excelsior
EXC
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Excelsior28%
Draw28%
Ajax44%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.45
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–08.8%
- 1–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ajax will have the ball; Excelsior will not mind.
43%Possession62%
40%Territory59%
30%From set plays20%
0.10Chance quality0.13
8.2%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Excelsior, 4 for Ajax.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.