Eredivisie · Matchweek 22
Excelsior
EXC
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Excelsior17%
Draw23%
Ajax60%
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.86
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–112.2%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ajax will have the ball; Excelsior will not mind.
42%Possession52%
32%Territory39%
45%From set plays29%
0.14Chance quality0.13
8.4%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Excelsior, 3 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Excelsior
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.