Eredivisie · Matchweek 22
FC Groningen
FCG
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Groningen31%
Draw28%
AZ Alkmaar41%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.42
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession58%
45%Territory55%
13%From set plays15%
0.07Chance quality0.11
6.3%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Groningen, 3 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
FC Groningen
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.