Eredivisie · Matchweek 22
Willem II
WIL
Sparta Rotterdam
SPA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Willem II26%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam49%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.69
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–06.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession44%
33%Territory39%
11%From set plays7%
0.18Chance quality0.19
8.2%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Willem II, 3 for Sparta Rotterdam. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.