Eredivisie · Matchweek 22
Willem II
WIL
Sparta Rotterdam
SPA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Willem II31%
Draw28%
Sparta Rotterdam41%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.40
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sparta Rotterdam get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
40%Possession45%
35%Territory37%
7%From set plays27%
0.13Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Willem II, 3 for Sparta Rotterdam. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.