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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 22

PSV Eindhoven

PSV

FC Twente

FCT

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

PSV Eindhoven46%
Draw27%
FC Twente27%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.16

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 1–010.8%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

63%Possession61%
54%Territory53%
13%From set plays20%
0.15Chance quality0.12
5.3%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PSV Eindhoven, 4 for FC Twente. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.