Eredivisie · Matchweek 21
FC Utrecht
FCU
Excelsior
EXC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Utrecht40%
Draw29%
Excelsior31%
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.14
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Excelsior get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
43%Possession43%
32%Territory40%
9%From set plays30%
0.22Chance quality0.10
6.9%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Utrecht, 4 for Excelsior. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.