Eredivisie · Matchweek 21
SC Heerenveen
SCH
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
SC Heerenveen41%
Draw28%
Ajax31%
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.24
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ajax get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession52%
31%Territory39%
7%From set plays29%
0.18Chance quality0.13
7.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for SC Heerenveen, 3 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.