Eredivisie · Matchweek 21
SC Heerenveen
SCH
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
SC Heerenveen32%
Draw29%
Ajax39%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.35
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–09.0%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession62%
45%Territory59%
24%From set plays20%
0.10Chance quality0.13
4.9%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for SC Heerenveen, 4 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.