Eredivisie · Matchweek 21
PEC Zwolle
PEC
Fortuna Sittard
FOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PEC Zwolle43%
Draw30%
Fortuna Sittard27%
Expected goals
1.27 – 0.97
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–110.2%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
38%Possession33%
35%Territory28%
37%From set plays39%
0.10Chance quality0.08
6.1%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PEC Zwolle, 3 for Fortuna Sittard. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.