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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 21

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

Telstar

TEL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam45%
Draw28%
Telstar27%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.07

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 1–012.2%
  • 0–09.5%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession40%
37%Territory35%
27%From set plays33%
0.15Chance quality0.13
6.5%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 4 for Telstar. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.