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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 21

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

Telstar

TEL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam49%
Draw25%
Telstar26%

Expected goals

1.69 – 1.19

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–07.7%
  • 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Telstar get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

44%Possession47%
39%Territory45%
7%From set plays34%
0.19Chance quality0.10
6.4%Directness7.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for Telstar. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.