Eredivisie · Matchweek 20
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
FC Utrecht
FCU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar52%
Draw27%
FC Utrecht21%
Expected goals
1.55 – 0.93
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–09.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession54%
47%Territory42%
30%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.08
4.7%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 3 for FC Utrecht. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
AZ Alkmaar
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.