Eredivisie · Matchweek 20
Ajax
AJA
Telstar
TEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax58%
Draw23%
Telstar19%
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.99
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.3%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–110.0%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession47%
39%Territory45%
29%From set plays34%
0.13Chance quality0.10
4.7%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ajax, 3 for Telstar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.