Eredivisie · Matchweek 20
Excelsior
EXC
Fortuna Sittard
FOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Excelsior50%
Draw27%
Fortuna Sittard22%
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.95
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Excelsior get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
43%Possession36%
40%Territory31%
30%From set plays4%
0.10Chance quality0.09
8.2%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Excelsior, 3 for Fortuna Sittard. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.