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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 20

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

FC Groningen

FCG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam38%
Draw29%
FC Groningen34%

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.24

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 0–19.7%
  • 0–08.9%
  • 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession51%
37%Territory45%
27%From set plays13%
0.15Chance quality0.07
6.5%Directness6.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for FC Groningen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.