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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 20

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

FC Groningen

FCG

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam40%
Draw26%
FC Groningen34%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.46

Over 2.5

58%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 1–08.0%
  • 1–27.8%
  • 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession50%
39%Territory37%
7%From set plays17%
0.19Chance quality0.14
6.4%Directness6.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for FC Groningen. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.