Eredivisie · Matchweek 19
SC Heerenveen
SCH
Sparta Rotterdam
SPA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
SC Heerenveen52%
Draw25%
Sparta Rotterdam23%
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.12
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
46%Possession44%
31%Territory39%
7%From set plays7%
0.18Chance quality0.19
7.2%Directness6.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for SC Heerenveen, 3 for Sparta Rotterdam. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.