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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 19

Go Ahead Eagles

GOA

AZ Alkmaar

AZA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Go Ahead Eagles31%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar42%

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.50

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 0–19.7%
  • 1–28.9%
  • 1–08.1%
  • 2–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession58%
39%Territory55%
21%From set plays15%
0.15Chance quality0.11
5.5%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Go Ahead Eagles, 3 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.