Eredivisie · Matchweek 19
Go Ahead Eagles
GOA
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Go Ahead Eagles30%
Draw29%
AZ Alkmaar42%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.36
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.8%
- 0–09.6%
- 1–09.4%
- 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession56%
34%Territory47%
16%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.15
6.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Go Ahead Eagles, 3 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Go Ahead Eagles
AZ Alkmaar
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.