Eredivisie · Matchweek 19
Ajax
AJA
FC Groningen
FCG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax50%
Draw25%
FC Groningen25%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.21
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession50%
39%Territory37%
29%From set plays17%
0.13Chance quality0.14
4.7%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ajax, 3 for FC Groningen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.