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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 18

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

Excelsior

EXC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam38%
Draw30%
Excelsior32%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.15

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.5%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 0–010.2%
  • 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession43%
37%Territory40%
27%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.10
6.5%Directness8.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 4 for Excelsior. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.