Eredivisie · Matchweek 18
Sparta Rotterdam
SPA
Excelsior
EXC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sparta Rotterdam63%
Draw22%
Excelsior16%
Expected goals
2.00 – 0.93
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.3%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 3–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Excelsior get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession42%
39%Territory32%
7%From set plays45%
0.19Chance quality0.14
6.4%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for Excelsior. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.