Eredivisie · Matchweek 18
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
SC Heerenveen
SCH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar48%
Draw28%
SC Heerenveen24%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.01
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession57%
55%Territory45%
15%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.10
4.2%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 3 for SC Heerenveen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.