Eredivisie · Matchweek 18
Willem II
WIL
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Willem II19%
Draw23%
Ajax58%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.87
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–29.8%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ajax will have the ball; Willem II will not mind.
44%Possession52%
33%Territory39%
11%From set plays29%
0.18Chance quality0.13
8.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Willem II, 3 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.