Eredivisie · Matchweek 18
Willem II
WIL
Ajax
AJA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Willem II18%
Draw23%
Ajax59%
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.91
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–111.1%
- 1–110.4%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 1–36.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ajax will have the ball; Willem II will not mind.
40%Possession62%
35%Territory59%
7%From set plays20%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.5%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Willem II, 4 for Ajax.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.