Eredivisie · Matchweek 17
Excelsior
EXC
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Excelsior16%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar60%
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.77
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.5%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
AZ Alkmaar will have the ball; Excelsior will not mind.
42%Possession56%
32%Territory47%
45%From set plays30%
0.14Chance quality0.15
8.4%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Excelsior, 3 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
This competition has no player data in the current snapshot, so there is nobody to name. Better than naming somebody anyway.