Eredivisie · Matchweek 17
Excelsior
EXC
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Excelsior29%
Draw29%
AZ Alkmaar42%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.35
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
AZ Alkmaar will have the ball; Excelsior will not mind.
43%Possession58%
40%Territory55%
30%From set plays15%
0.10Chance quality0.11
8.2%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Excelsior, 3 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.