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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 17

Telstar

TEL

Willem II

WIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Telstar48%
Draw27%
Willem II25%

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.04

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–012.3%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–08.8%
  • 2–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Telstar get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

40%Possession40%
35%Territory35%
33%From set plays7%
0.13Chance quality0.13
7.2%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Telstar, 4 for Willem II.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.