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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 17

Go Ahead Eagles

GOA

Ajax

AJA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Go Ahead Eagles31%
Draw28%
Ajax41%

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.42

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.5%
  • 0–110.6%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 0–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession52%
34%Territory39%
16%From set plays29%
0.09Chance quality0.13
6.2%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Go Ahead Eagles, 3 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.