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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 17

Go Ahead Eagles

GOA

Ajax

AJA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Go Ahead Eagles29%
Draw26%
Ajax45%

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.61

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 1–07.3%
  • 2–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Ajax will have the ball; Go Ahead Eagles will not mind.

52%Possession62%
39%Territory59%
21%From set plays20%
0.15Chance quality0.13
5.5%Directness3.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Go Ahead Eagles, 4 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.