Eredivisie · Matchweek 16
PEC Zwolle
PEC
Excelsior
EXC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PEC Zwolle52%
Draw27%
Excelsior21%
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.92
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
38%Possession42%
35%Territory32%
39%From set plays45%
0.09Chance quality0.14
6.1%Directness8.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PEC Zwolle, 3 for Excelsior. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Excelsior
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.