Eredivisie · Matchweek 16
PEC Zwolle
PEC
Excelsior
EXC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PEC Zwolle27%
Draw29%
Excelsior44%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.40
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.4%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession43%
28%Territory40%
24%From set plays30%
0.11Chance quality0.10
5.0%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PEC Zwolle, 4 for Excelsior. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.