Eredivisie · Matchweek 16
FC Utrecht
FCU
Fortuna Sittard
FOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Utrecht51%
Draw26%
Fortuna Sittard23%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.04
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession36%
32%Territory31%
9%From set plays4%
0.22Chance quality0.09
6.9%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Utrecht, 3 for Fortuna Sittard. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.