Eredivisie · Matchweek 16
Willem II
WIL
ADO Den Haag
ADO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Willem II43%
Draw29%
ADO Den Haag28%
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.07
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–010.1%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession43%
35%Territory36%
7%From set plays22%
0.13Chance quality0.04
5.5%Directness6.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Willem II, 3 for ADO Den Haag. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.