Eredivisie · Matchweek 16
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar51%
Draw25%
NEC Nijmegen24%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.13
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession61%
55%Territory42%
15%From set plays17%
0.11Chance quality0.14
4.2%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 4 for NEC Nijmegen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.