Eredivisie · Matchweek 15
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
PSV Eindhoven
PSV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar31%
Draw26%
PSV Eindhoven43%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.62
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession63%
55%Territory54%
15%From set plays13%
0.11Chance quality0.15
4.2%Directness5.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 3 for PSV Eindhoven. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.