Eredivisie · Matchweek 15
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
PSV Eindhoven
PSV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar30%
Draw29%
PSV Eindhoven41%
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.36
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–09.4%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–28.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession56%
47%Territory51%
30%From set plays39%
0.15Chance quality0.10
4.7%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 3 for PSV Eindhoven. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
AZ Alkmaar
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.