Eredivisie · Matchweek 15
Ajax
AJA
FC Utrecht
FCU
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax52%
Draw26%
FC Utrecht22%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.01
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession54%
39%Territory42%
29%From set plays30%
0.13Chance quality0.08
4.7%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ajax, 3 for FC Utrecht. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.