Eredivisie · Matchweek 14
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
FC Twente
FCT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
NEC Nijmegen25%
Draw28%
FC Twente47%
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.48
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–09.2%
- 0–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession64%
58%Territory54%
39%From set plays40%
0.09Chance quality0.14
4.5%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for NEC Nijmegen, 3 for FC Twente. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.