Eredivisie · Matchweek 14
Excelsior
EXC
Telstar
TEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Excelsior46%
Draw29%
Telstar25%
Expected goals
1.39 – 0.97
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.6%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession40%
40%Territory35%
30%From set plays33%
0.10Chance quality0.13
8.2%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Excelsior, 4 for Telstar.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Telstar
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.