Eredivisie · Matchweek 14
Excelsior
EXC
Telstar
TEL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Excelsior28%
Draw27%
Telstar44%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.50
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession47%
32%Territory45%
45%From set plays34%
0.14Chance quality0.10
8.4%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Excelsior, 3 for Telstar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Excelsior
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.