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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 13

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

AZ Alkmaar

AZA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam27%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar45%

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.49

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–111.3%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 0–08.3%
  • 1–08.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

AZ Alkmaar will have the ball; Sparta Rotterdam will not mind.

45%Possession58%
37%Territory55%
27%From set plays15%
0.15Chance quality0.11
6.5%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.