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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 12

Fortuna Sittard

FOR

Telstar

TEL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fortuna Sittard37%
Draw29%
Telstar33%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.19

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 1–011.2%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 0–09.9%
  • 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Telstar get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

36%Possession40%
31%Territory35%
4%From set plays33%
0.09Chance quality0.13
7.8%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fortuna Sittard, 4 for Telstar. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.