Eredivisie · Matchweek 12
ADO Den Haag
ADO
Sparta Rotterdam
SPA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
ADO Den Haag29%
Draw30%
Sparta Rotterdam41%
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.31
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.5%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession45%
36%Territory37%
22%From set plays27%
0.04Chance quality0.15
6.6%Directness6.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for ADO Den Haag, 3 for Sparta Rotterdam. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.