Eredivisie · Matchweek 12
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
FC Groningen
FCG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar51%
Draw25%
FC Groningen24%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.11
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession50%
47%Territory37%
30%From set plays17%
0.15Chance quality0.14
4.7%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 3 for FC Groningen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
AZ Alkmaar
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 99 matches, not the full season.