Eredivisie · Matchweek 12
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
FC Groningen
FCG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar53%
Draw25%
FC Groningen21%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.00
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession51%
55%Territory45%
15%From set plays13%
0.11Chance quality0.07
4.2%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 3 for FC Groningen. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.