Eredivisie · Matchweek 11
Ajax
AJA
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax44%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar29%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.21
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
62%Possession58%
59%Territory55%
20%From set plays15%
0.13Chance quality0.11
3.6%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Ajax, 3 for AZ Alkmaar. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.