Eredivisie · Matchweek 10
AZ Alkmaar
AZA
FC Twente
FCT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
AZ Alkmaar34%
Draw30%
FC Twente36%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.20
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession61%
55%Territory53%
15%From set plays20%
0.11Chance quality0.12
4.2%Directness4.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for AZ Alkmaar, 4 for FC Twente. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.