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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 10

Fortuna Sittard

FOR

Excelsior

EXC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Fortuna Sittard32%
Draw30%
Excelsior39%

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.28

Over 2.5

43%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.1%
  • 0–111.7%
  • 0–010.3%
  • 1–010.2%
  • 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Excelsior get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

36%Possession43%
31%Territory40%
4%From set plays30%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.8%Directness8.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Fortuna Sittard, 4 for Excelsior. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.