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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 10

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

Ajax

AJA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam26%
Draw26%
Ajax48%

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.60

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 0–110.9%
  • 1–29.4%
  • 0–28.0%
  • 0–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Ajax will have the ball; Sparta Rotterdam will not mind.

45%Possession62%
37%Territory59%
27%From set plays20%
0.15Chance quality0.13
6.5%Directness3.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 4 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.