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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 9

FC Groningen

FCG

Ajax

AJA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

FC Groningen29%
Draw27%
Ajax44%

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.52

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 0–110.4%
  • 1–29.1%
  • 1–08.0%
  • 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Ajax will have the ball; FC Groningen will not mind.

51%Possession62%
45%Territory59%
13%From set plays20%
0.07Chance quality0.13
6.3%Directness3.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Groningen, 4 for Ajax. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.