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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 9

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

Willem II

WIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Sparta Rotterdam53%
Draw26%
Willem II22%

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.02

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–011.9%
  • 1–111.6%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 2–09.2%
  • 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Sparta Rotterdam get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession40%
37%Territory35%
27%From set plays7%
0.15Chance quality0.13
6.5%Directness5.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sparta Rotterdam, 4 for Willem II. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.