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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

Eredivisie · Matchweek 8

Go Ahead Eagles

GOA

Sparta Rotterdam

SPA

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Go Ahead Eagles47%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam27%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.18

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 2–07.6%
  • 0–17.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession45%
39%Territory37%
21%From set plays27%
0.15Chance quality0.15
5.5%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Go Ahead Eagles, 3 for Sparta Rotterdam. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.