Eredivisie · Matchweek 8
Ajax
AJA
NEC Nijmegen
NEC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax54%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen22%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.13
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–08.5%
- 3–16.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
62%Possession61%
59%Territory42%
20%From set plays17%
0.13Chance quality0.14
3.6%Directness3.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Ajax, 4 for NEC Nijmegen.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.