Eredivisie · Matchweek 8
FC Utrecht
FCU
Willem II
WIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
FC Utrecht54%
Draw25%
Willem II21%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.01
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession40%
32%Territory35%
9%From set plays7%
0.22Chance quality0.13
6.9%Directness5.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Utrecht, 4 for Willem II. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.