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Eredivisie · Matchweek 7

Willem II

WIL

Fortuna Sittard

FOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Willem II38%
Draw28%
Fortuna Sittard33%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.25

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.7%
  • 1010.3%
  • 019.5%
  • 008.6%
  • 218.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

40%Possession36%
35%Territory31%
7%From set plays4%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.5%Directness7.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Willem II, 3 for Fortuna Sittard. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.