Eredivisie · Matchweek 7
Willem II
WIL
Fortuna Sittard
FOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Willem II38%
Draw28%
Fortuna Sittard33%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.25
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession36%
35%Territory31%
7%From set plays4%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.5%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Willem II, 3 for Fortuna Sittard. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.