Eredivisie · Matchweek 7
Ajax
AJA
Excelsior
EXC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ajax56%
Draw25%
Excelsior19%
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.93
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Ajax will have the ball; Excelsior will not mind.
62%Possession43%
59%Territory40%
20%From set plays30%
0.13Chance quality0.10
3.6%Directness8.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Ajax, 4 for Excelsior.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 29 of 54 matches, not the full season.