Serie A · Matchweek 25
Venezia
VEN
Cagliari
CAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Venezia35%
Draw28%
Cagliari37%
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.34
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.2%
- 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession44%
43%Territory32%
14%From set plays19%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.4%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 5 for Venezia, 4 for Cagliari.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 35 of 98 matches, not the full season.